#Germany: What's going on?
#Disclaimer: I'm a member of the #AltRight – or as Leftists say: "a NAZI" – but I keep this description #neutral, so everyone can reshare it and learn about the #political situation in #Germany. I post my
literally Hitler evil thoughts/predictions about this current development in a follow-up post.
The #Media has been abuzz: A member of parliament from #Chancellor #Merkel's own #party threatened her #government would be toppled within weeks, if she doesn't change her #refugee policy. The powerful Interior Minister (law enforcement, homeland security) met with #Austria's #Chancellor #Kurz against Merkel's will and openly challenged her. Is the new #German #government about to fall?
What you need to know about…
The composition of the current #Bundestag by party. The #CSU members are categorized as #CDU in the picture.
("Christian Democratic Union"), a formerly conservative center-right party, now a centrist party lead directly by Angela Merkel; the CDU does not exist in the state of #Bavaria
; extremely corrupt: the guy who is known to have taken hundreds of thousands of illegal bribes from arms dealers/traffickers was made interior minister, then finance minister, and now president of the Bundestag and nobody cares
("Christian Social Union"), a small party that exists only in the state of #Bavaria
; is the "sister-party" of the #CDU
, and forms a single #caucus
("Fraktion") in the #Bundestag
with the #CDU
; center-right, tends to be a bit more conservative than the #CDU
; lead (basically) by #HorstSeehofer
; in absolute control of #Bavaria
("Social Democratic Party"), a formerly center-left, now left party; unstable party leadership: party leaders have switched three times in one year and there is a lot of infighting about positions of power; #promised
not to form a #coalition
with Merkel before and after the elections; now main #coalition
partner of Merkel; they therefore control half the government ministries and the vice chancellorship; in somewhat of a state of crisis after the last election (worst result ever), as they don't know what to do to win future elections
– as the name says is a very left party, consisting of socialist/communist West Germans and the former ruling East German socialist party (basically there was just one party in East Germany); shady communist past (with secret police #Stasi)
, mass surveillance and censorship; unclear party leadership, lots of infighting (about what is real communism): they have a "Doppelspitze" ("gender leadership rule"), i.e. there's always a man & a woman occupying the very same party position, and the formal party leaders are often at odds with the leaders of the party's caucus (parliamentary group, i.e. the group of elected officials in the Bundestag)
– as the name says, the leftist #environmentalists
, who hate #cars
, but love to campaign for #refugees
issues, new #gender
laws, and anything that #hurts
; publicly oppose war, corruption, cuts to social benefits & mass surveillance, but then vote in favor of war, corruption, social benefits cuts & mass surveillance; they too have a "Doppelspitze" (gender) rule; unclear party leadership with a dozen different current and former officials; they have a murky history of #pedophilia
("Free Democratic Party"), a pro-business party, loosely centered around #libertarian
ideas; after the recent election and initial negotiations, the FDP opted against a coalition with Merkel over the issue of #refugees
, which stalled coalition negotiations for months; had not been part of the previous Bundestag after failing to meet the 5% threshold in the 2013 elections, after a strong media campaign against them – their (now deceased) leader was the only high-ranking politician to oppose the war in #Libya
; now rejuvenated and lead by #ChristianLindner
(young, dynamic man similar to the new Austrian Chancellor Kurz)
("Alternative for Germany"), main opposition party; originally created by #libertarian
intellectuals (called "Professor's Party") against the #Euro
, but now the new conservative party which fills the void the #CDU
used to hold on the center-right; mostly made up of former #CDU
members; also drained membership from far-right parties like #NPD
; described by the #MainstreamMedia
as: "xenophobic, homophobic, racist, populist, far-right"
; similar to British #UKIP
, French #FrontNational
, or Austrian #FPÖ
; the AfD has a #conservative
wing, being lead by #AlexanderGauland
, a life-long #CDU
politician who switched to AfD, and #AliceWeidel
, a #lesbian
businesswoman and member of the Friedrich-Hayek Society
#Chancellor #AngelaMerkel and the #Ministers of her new #government after they took their #oath of #office in #March #2018. The tall, white-haired man next to Merkel is #HorstSeehofer, the new #Interior #Minister of #Germany, around whom the crisis revolves.
, long-time #Chancellor
of the Federal Republic of Germany, #PhD
, raised in #EastGermany
(her father was one of very few people who "fled" #WestGermany
to go to #EastGermany)
, unchallenged ruler of the #CDU
party; called "Mutti" ("mommy") by the #MainstreamMedia
; was "groomed" for leadership by former Chancellor #Kohl
, who taught her to remain in power by killing off all intra-party opposition figures, which lead to him (and now Merkel) being surrounded by completely, incompetent yet utterly devoted party members
, former Governor of Bavaria, virtual leader of the #CSU
party, disliked by the #Left
for all the #conservative
stuff he constantly says, and increasingly disliked by #conservatives
for being "all talk, no action" and failing to deliver on any conservative policy (which is why he had to resign as Governor of Bavaria a few months ago); he has been described as "wind bag" and has never before gone against Merkel despite threatening it like once a month, which makes this current "confrontation" look like mere kabuki theatre to some observers
The 2017 Elections
The German #Chancellor
isn't elected by the people, but by the #Bundestag
, the German parliament (lower house). Whoever has a #majority
in the #Bundestag
, will be elected #Chancellor
and then control the government.¹ Since no single party has (virtually) ever achieved an absolute majority in elections, the parties usually engage into #coalition
negotiations after every national election to form a stable majority, based on a negotiated "coalition contract".
After national elections for the #Bundestag
#2017, Merkel's previous coalition has lost incredibly many seats in parliament, which triggered the longest round of negotiations between the parties in Germany's post-war history. Before the elections, her coalition of the #CDU
(Merkel's party), the #CSU
, and the #SPD
controlled 80% of parliament (502 of 631 seats). After the election, these parties only retained 56% (399 of 709 seats), an extremely thin majority. This slim majority is the reason for the sudden importance of the #CSU
party in national politics: Despite being a very small (7%) single-state party, the #CSU
now has the possibility to leave the #coalition
and thereby destroy #Merkel's
governing majority in the Bundestag, something the #CSU
could not do at any point before.
Bayerischer Landtag – #StateHouse (parliament) of the State of Bavaria
However, the #CSU
party is extremely vulnerable because they exist in only 1 of Germany's 16 states: #Bavaria
. And there are state elections coming up in October. The #CSU
has always held the absolute majority of the State Parliament in Bavaria in post-war #Germany
(~70 years), and the #CSU
are proud #Bavarians
, conservative voters, and people from #rural
areas in Bavaria. In the Bundestag elections last year, the #CSU
lost a huge part of their voters to the new #AfD
party, after all those voters were disappointed & angry over the #CSU
refugee policy. While this loss was bad for them, it didn't threaten their power hold on #Bavaria
, as it only affected the national Bundestag. But in October this year, there are elections for a new State House in #Bavaria
and the #CSU
is extremely fearful of losing their majority in #Bavaria
, which would basically doom the single-state party.
This is why Germany's Interior Minister² #HorstSeehofer
, the (virtual) #CSU
leader and former Governor of Bavaria, is pushing a tough, conservative line in regards to #migrants
, challening #Merkel's
policy. Despite the ongoing #World
– which usually distracts #Germans
, especially now that Germany is defending the title of World Champion – the #Media
is abuzz with #rumors
about a possible breakup/breakdown of the #German
. Last week, German national news television #N-TV
even fell for a fake and reported the breakup of the coalition on national TV.
The driving force – #AfD election poster in #Munich, claiming that #Strauss, #Bavaria's famous founder of the #CSU, would vote for the #AfD these days.
even ditched a summon by #Merkel
to instead meet with #Austria's
to discuss #securing
. And a Bundestag member of #Merkel's
own party #CDU
said "the Merkel government could fall within 2 weeks."
in Germany is somewhat more independent from the #Chancellor
than a #secretary
is from the #President
. The #Chancellor
isn't allowed to give specific orders, but can only issue a "general guiding principle" (dt.: "Richtlinienkompetenz") to ministers. Example: The US President can order his Secretary of Defense to order new tanks to strengthen the Army. The German Chancellor can only issue the principle "strengthen the Army" but the Minister of Defense decides whether to order more tanks, increase infantry size, or modernize its attack helicopters.
As such, the Interior Minister #Seehofer
has a broad authority in running his ministry (department). Yesterday, he fired the head of the German Department of Migration and Refugees, as it is a subject of the Interior Ministry. There's broad consensus everywhere that the upcoming #election
is the driving force behind this "crisis", as their national actions will heavily reflect on the votes the #CSU
will receive in October.
What does this mean for the #EU?
As nobody is even trying to hide it: The EU is built upon the #taxpayer
. Every #EU
problem in the past was solved by opening #Germany's
big wallet and giving someone tons of #money
. Since #Merkel
controls the flow of
spice from Arrakis
money from Germany, she is the inofficial Leader of the #EU
these days, controlling most of its policy decisions. Any upset, or even change, in the leadership of the German government would immediately result in the respective change of #EU
leadership & policy.
This is the end of the neutral description
If you want to know what I think will happen, read my next post (linked in the first comment)!
My only comment for now: No, Merkel won't be toppled, and nothing of importance will change for anyone outside Germany.
¹: Although extremely rare, it's possible for a Chancellor to be toppled and succeeded in a single vote – if a sufficiently large group of Bundestag members change their party/coalition preference; #Merkel's deceased mentor, former #Chancellor #HelmutKohl, came to power this way: Germans woke up on October 1st 1982 and the entire government was replaced by him over night.
²: Unlike the US Department of the Interior, the German Ministry of the Interior is more akin to #DoJ & #DoHS, i.e. responsible for #LawEnforcement, #HomelandSecurity, and – behold – #Migrants & #Refugees.
³: The Greens even elected a real Nazi, who was an actual devoted member of Adolf Hitler's party #NSDAP, to the Bundestag after he disavowed Hitler and publicly came out as a pedophile.
(probably not a neutral footnote, but I have trouble remaining neutral when it comes to
people who deserve to be brutally slaughtered